A recent analysis in BMJ Global Health highlights that pandemic-causing pathogens, particularly SARS-CoV-2 (the virus responsible for COVID-19), have historically and are projected to impose the most significant global burdens from emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) between 2000 and 2034. For non-pandemic illnesses, dengue and cholera were identified as the most impactful.
The study, conducted by a team of Harvard researchers, introduced a novel methodology for quantifying and ranking the health and economic impacts of diseases. This method was applied to 15 high-priority EIDs across 223 countries and territories, examining both past (2000-2022) and future (2025-2034) scenarios. Health burdens were measured by disability-adjusted life-year losses, translated into monetary terms using the value of a statistical life-year. Economic burdens encompassed direct and indirect costs associated with acute illness and hospitalization.
The analysis revealed that the Americas and Africa experienced the highest per-capita disease burdens, while the Western Pacific region faced the lowest.
COVID-19 emerged with the largest global weighted full burden, estimated at $63.3 trillion, and impacted all world regions except Africa, where cholera presented a greater burden. Following COVID-19, cholera, dengue, and the pandemic H1N1 influenza strain showed the next highest burdens, with full weighted costs of $12.2 trillion, $8.0 trillion, and $4.4 trillion, respectively. In contrast, West Nile virus and Ebola registered significantly lower burdens, at $18.8 billion and $93.2 billion, respectively, with all other EIDs having weighted full burdens under $8 billion.
Within the United States, pandemic H1N1 accounted for the second-highest full burden at $235.1 billion, followed by West Nile virus at $18.2 billion.
The researchers emphasize that understanding disease burdens is crucial for prioritizing research and development, including the development of medical countermeasures. They suggest that their comprehensive quantification of disease burdens can serve as a valuable tool for informing such priority-setting decisions.