A recent analysis published in BMJ Global Health indicates that between 2000 and 2022, pandemic-causing pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2 responsible for COVID-19, inflicted the most substantial historical and projected emerging infectious disease (EID) burdens globally. In contrast, dengue and cholera emerged as the most impactful non-pandemic illnesses during this period.
Geographically, the Americas and Africa bore the highest per-capita disease burdens, while the Western Pacific region experienced the lowest.
The research, spearheaded by a team from Harvard, introduced a novel framework to quantify and rank the health and economic impacts of 15 high-priority EIDs across 223 countries and territories, examining both past data (2000-2022) and future projections (2025-2034). The methodology incorporated disability-adjusted life-year losses, translated into monetary terms using the value of a statistical life-year, alongside direct and indirect costs associated with acute illness and hospitalization.
The study authors noted that while individual disease burdens have been documented, the diverse methodologies used in previous research have made direct comparisons challenging.
Disease Burdens Inform Research and Development Prioritization
Globally, COVID-19 registered the highest weighted overall burden at $63.3 trillion, impacting all world regions except Africa, where cholera presented a more significant burden.
The EIDs with the subsequent highest burdens were cholera ($12.2 trillion), dengue ($8.0 trillion), and pandemic H1N1 influenza ($4.4 trillion). In comparison, West Nile virus had a significantly lower burden of $18.8 billion, and Ebola a weighted burden of $93.2 billion. All other EIDs tracked had weighted burdens below $8 billion.
Within the United States, pandemic H1N1 represented the second-largest overall burden ($235.1 billion), followed by West Nile virus ($18.2 billion).
The researchers concluded, "R&D [research and development] priority-setting, including MCM [medical countermeasures] development, depends on multiple criteria, including disease burdens. Our full burden quantification methods and results, along with other such criteria, can inform priority-setting."