Leaked text messages allegedly show that Dr. Anthony Fauci covered up data proving an 82% miscarriage rate among women who received an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine during their first trimester.
The 82% miscarriage figure is a severe distortion originating from a fundamental misinterpretation of a 2021 research paper. Extensive scientific evaluations have consistently demonstrated that miscarriage rates among vaccinated individuals match those seen in the general population.
Social media posts circulated widely, pushing the narrative that former presidential medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci concealed alarming statistics regarding pregnancy and the COVID-19 vaccine. Critics asserted that data was suppressed showing that upwards of 80% of women who got vaccinated in their first trimester experienced miscarriages.
This wave of online outrage followed the public release of documents by U.S. Senators Rand Paul and Ron Johnson, which included an excerpt from a text message attributed to Fauci. In the message, he noted that the second vaccine dose “theoretically could be associated with miscarriage in the 1st trimester.”
Viral posts seized on the text to demand legal action against public health officials, arguing that the leadership knowingly pushed unsafe vaccines onto pregnant women.
(Social media users spreading the claim)
We have evaluated this claim and found it to be entirely false.
The assertions rely on deeply flawed data analysis. Numerous comprehensive studies have confirmed that receiving a COVID-19 vaccine does not elevate the risk of miscarriage or other pregnancy-related complications. Independent evaluations—alongside previous findings by multiple fact-checking organizations—have shown that the 82% statistic drastically misinterprets data originally published in an April 2021 study.
Furthermore, the text message in question was sent in January 2021, prior to the completion of data collection for that study, meaning Fauci could not have been referencing its findings. Rather than citing actual miscarriage statistics, the text simply raised a theoretical possibility worthy of preliminary scientific inquiry before the rollout of the vaccines.
Consequently, there is no evidence of any data cover-up. The alleged cover-up centers on statistics that do not exist. Later messages released in the same document batch reveal that as comprehensive safety data accumulated, Fauci concluded there were no indications of risk associated with vaccinating pregnant women.
Origin of the ‘82% Miscarriage Rate’ Figure
In April 2021, researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a preliminary safety report concerning mRNA vaccines and pregnancy. The analysis drew from the v-safe pregnancy registry, a self-reported database active between December 2020 and February 2021.
The report tracked 827 women with completed pregnancies by March 2021, noting 104 instances of miscarriage (referred to as spontaneous abortions). This yielded a miscarriage rate of 12.6% among those completed pregnancies—a figure entirely consistent with baseline population estimates, which typically range from 9% to 22%.
Even this 12.6% metric was recognized as incomplete due to a lack of long-term follow-ups for individuals vaccinated early in their terms. Subsequent, more robust studies placed the actual miscarriage rate between 9% and 10.9%, mirroring or falling below typical background rates.
Anti-vaccine commentators arrived at the 82% figure by isolating a tiny fraction of the data: out of the 827 completed pregnancies, 700 women had been vaccinated during their third trimester. By restricting the calculation exclusively to the 127 remaining participants who had completed pregnancies and were vaccinated earlier, they divided 104 by 127.
This math completely disregards basic timelines. Because the study covered a short window, participants who received vaccines in their first or second trimesters and carried healthy pregnancies simply had not finished their terms by the time data collection closed. Conversely, pregnancies that ended abruptly in the first trimester—predominantly through miscarriages—were naturally captured within the completed data pool, severely skewing the arithmetic.
The Context of Fauci’s Text Messages
The messages published by Senators Johnson and Paul do not demonstrate any suppression of safety concerns. The exchange began when then-U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy inquired whether timing—early versus late pregnancy—changed safety outcomes.
Fauci initially responded that no data or theoretical reasons favored one timing over another, but followed up hours later with a cautious caveat regarding potential post-vaccination fever and cytokine responses:
I asked around a bit more and another issue came up that you need to be aware of. Since many people have significant cytokines storm and fever after the 2nd dose, this theoretically could be associated with miscarriage in the 1st trimester
However, this theoretical caution was not borne out by subsequent data. Later messages within the same release show Fauci confirming that subsequent evaluations revealed “no issues have arisen” among thousands of vaccinated pregnant individuals, aligning directly with his public statements at the time.
Summary
The claim that text messages expose a suppressed 82% miscarriage rate is fundamentally baseless. The calculations underpinning the rumor rely on a fundamental misunderstanding of pregnancy tracking data, isolating early pregnancy losses while ignoring ongoing, healthy pregnancies that had yet to reach term.
Comprehensive scientific research has repeatedly debunked links between COVID-19 vaccination and miscarriages. Far from hiding negative outcomes, public health officials monitored the emerging data closely, finding that vaccine safety was continuously supported by broader, expanding datasets.