Claim:
A viral social media graphic accurately demonstrates that price increases for essential household goods and utilities were more severe under President Joe Biden than during Donald Trump’s second term.
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<p class="fact_check_info_description">The graphic in question relies on a fundamentally flawed and misleading inflation comparison. It pits Biden's full 48-month term against just 20 months of Trump's administration. Furthermore, the specific statistics displayed do not match the official government database cited as the source.</p>
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<p>In September 2026, a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/fhbnews/photos/inflation-hit-american-families-hard-under-biden-heres-how-the-prices-of-everyda/122209246982603633/">graphic</a> (<a href="https://perma.cc/QVS2-XW3T">archived</a>) began making the rounds online, with users asserting that it provided undeniable proof of higher inflation rates for everyday goods during Joe Biden's presidency compared to Donald Trump's second term.</p>
<p>In essence, the posts argued that the pace of price hikes was significantly steeper during the Biden administration.</p>
<p>One typical Facebook post accompanying the image <a href="https://www.facebook.com/fhbnews/photos/inflation-hit-american-families-hard-under-biden-heres-how-the-prices-of-everyda/122209246982603633/">declared</a>, "Inflation hit American families hard under Biden."</p>
<p><iframe style="border:none;overflow:hidden;" data-src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Ffhbnews%2Fposts%2Fpfbid0jiqPEz2Y36qZCXywAgHvCjxTbgXim6Vk2rmGkCf7qgGotbdxyh3ibrSoWasy7rU7l&show_text=true&width=500" class="lazy_load_iframe" width="500" height="679" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe></p>
<p>The image surfaced <a href="https://www.facebook.com/john.philo.50/posts/pfbid0A5gp47w3nhHdWPwYz7uQpEMRCPb5tWyGxsnov1eZjW36SbBymwBKhQc1z2SV7FEml">across multiple platforms</a>, including the official <a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1574814804684556&set=a.237135275119189">Denton County Republican Party</a> Facebook page in Texas (<a href="https://perma.cc/DV63-KWGB">archived</a>, <a href="https://perma.cc/AC8D-3Y69">archived</a>). It was also shared widely on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/DdbuKWkCUsE/">Instagram</a>, <a href="https://www.threads.com/@lewilliams76/post/Ddb6plvjb__/others-are-seeing-it-too-why-cant-you-think-further-ahead-than-today-that-is/">Threads</a>, and <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@spectacled1960/video/7686881118590684429">TikTok</a> (<a href="https://perma.cc/64M5-CUJH">archived</a>, <a href="https://perma.cc/QY9T-RCC7">archived</a>, <a href="https://perma.cc/LC5B-Z6HT">archived</a>), prompting numerous inquiries from readers wanting to verify the numbers.</p>
<p>While the graphic claimed to demonstrate milder price increases under Trump, the data presented is incorrect, likely fabricated, and relies on an apples-to-oranges comparison.</p>
<p>Using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) <a href="https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/cu">Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers</a> (CPI-U) database—the exact source cited by the graphic—we were unable to verify any of the inflation metrics supposedly tracking the period from January 2021 to January 2025 or January 2025 to August 2026.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the methodology is fundamentally flawed. The graphic contrasts Biden's complete 48-month term with a mere 20-month snapshot of Trump's second term (spanning January 2025 through August 2026). Because inflation accumulates over time, valid comparisons require equivalent timeframes, such as matching the initial 20 months of both administrations or comparing full four-year terms.</p>
<p>The precise origin of the graphic remains murky. An inquiry was sent to the Denton County Republican Party regarding the source of their figures, and we are awaiting a response.</p>
<p>Notably, Pangram, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/business/dealbook/pangram-ai-slop-detection.html" target="_blank">highly respected</a> artificial intelligence detection service, identified <a href="https://www.pangram.com/history/images/a544fdc4-46d4-4648-8d5a-1894145c7900?ucc=W7l1Knb8HnV">two</a> <a href="https://www.pangram.com/history/images?history=7a96eec2-9dbb-4ebd-8721-d8800c684ff2">versions</a> of the graphic as entirely AI-generated. Facebook also flagged the Denton County GOP post as AI-generated content, though experts acknowledge that current AI detectors are not infallible.</p>
<p>It remains unclear whether artificial intelligence was used to generate the underlying data points or simply to design the visual asset itself.</p>
<h2>What is the CPI?</h2>
<p>The graphic explicitly points to the BLS <a href="https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/cu">CPI-U database</a>. According to federal agencies, the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/overview.htm">CPI</a> measures "changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households," serving as the benchmark metric for inflation. The CPI-U captures approximately 90% of the total U.S. population.</p>
<p>Because the CPI measures long-term price fluctuations, it serves as the standard tool for comparing economic eras. Most BLS index series rely on a baseline average established across 1982, 1983, and 1984, indexed at a value of 100 to gauge subsequent percentage shifts.</p>
<p>As the BLS explains:</p>
<blockquote><p>An index of 110, for example, means there has been a 10-percent increase in price since the reference period; similarly, an index of 90 means there has been a 10-percent decrease.</p></blockquote>
<p>Inflation rates (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09/11/business/inflation-cpi-report">tracked via the CPI</a>) are standardly communicated in percentages to accurately illustrate price trajectories between two distinct moments in time.</p>
<h2>What the Data Actually Shows</h2>
<p>The viral posts asserted that the graphic utilized "U.S. cities average" data sets from the <a href="https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/cu">CPI-U database</a>.</p>
<p>We successfully located index series for 12 of the 13 categories featured in the image. However, the BLS does not actually publish a specific index series for "Natural gas" under that exact title in the CPI-U database, indicating the graphic utilized external or unverified metrics.</p>
<p>The graphic failed to specify whether it relied on "seasonally adjusted" figures. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/help/one_screen/CU.htm#select-select-seasonal-adjustment">The BLS notes</a> that seasonal adjustments remove "the influences of predictable seasonal patterns from time series data."</p>
<p>In our attempt to audit the claims, we utilized seasonally adjusted urban averages where available (excluding "baby food and formula," which lacks seasonal adjustment data).</p>
<p><iframe data-src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRCg6HOPldeWHDakQ1JXsfgb9I7jFuXltut3KZxZ-Gmb7NbzKgQp_lWCGEJmyvvsi8NYzEJ3wxXe9gk/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" class="lazy_load_iframe"></iframe></p>
<p>Official BLS records do confirm that prices for these 12 goods and utilities grew at a slower pace during Trump's second term than during Biden's first. However, this outcome is mathematically guaranteed given that Biden's term was more than twice as long as the 20-month window evaluated for Trump.</p>
<p>More importantly, the real BLS data contradicts the numbers presented in the viral graphic across <i>every single item</i>. In several instances, the graphic actually understated Trump's record—official figures showed that inflation had dropped for four of the listed products, rather than just the single item claimed by the graphic.</p>
<h2>Conducting a Fair Comparison</h2>
<p>To establish an equitable evaluation, we must look at parallel timeframes—specifically, the first 20 months of Biden's presidency (January 2021 to August 2022) compared against the first 20 months of Trump's second term (January 2025 to August 2026):</p>
<p><iframe data-src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRCg6HOPldeWHDakQ1JXsfgb9I7jFuXltut3KZxZ-Gmb7NbzKgQp_lWCGEJmyvvsi8NYzEJ3wxXe9gk/pubhtml?gid=777538928&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" class="lazy_load_iframe"></iframe></p>
<p>When evaluated across identical 20-month intervals, inflation was actually lower for 10 of the 12 products during the beginning of Trump's second term.</p>
<p>Economists also emphasize critical context: Biden's inauguration coincided with the tail end of the COVID-19 pandemic, sparking <a href="https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm">unprecedented global inflation</a> not seen in decades. Experts remain divided on the primary drivers of this post-pandemic spike.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-caused-the-u-s-pandemic-era-inflation/">The Brookings Institution</a> noted in June 2023 that:</p>
<blockquote><p>Most of the rise in inflation in 2021 and 2022 was driven by developments that directly raised prices rather than wages, including sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the pandemic to goods from services.</p></blockquote>
<p>Analysts assigned a comparatively minor role to direct fiscal policy.</p>
<p>Conversely, <a href="https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/federal-spending-was-responsible-2022-spike-inflation-research-shows">researchers from the MIT Sloan School of Management</a> concluded in July 2024 that government stimulus spending accounted for roughly 42% of the inflation observed in 2022, arguing that pandemic relief funding supercharged economic recovery while simultaneously fueling price surges.</p>
<p>Ultimately, social media posts claiming milder inflation metrics for specific products under Trump's second term compared to Biden's first are misleading, utilizing unverified statistics and a deeply flawed comparative framework. Whether creators relied on AI to source or present this information remains secondary to its fundamental inaccuracies.</p>
<p>For further analysis, explore additional <a href="https://www.snopes.com/tag/inflation/">inflation fact-checks</a>.</p>