Trump’s "97% Cut" Claim on Drug Flow Lacks Factual Basis
By Yogesh
President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that his administration has achieved a remarkable 97% reduction in the flow of illegal drugs entering the U.S. via waterways. However, available federal data does not corroborate this significant claim.
Drug policy experts emphasize that without comprehensive data on the total amount of drugs trafficked into the U.S., including that which goes undetected, it’s impossible to accurately assess the validity of such a claim. "We do not know the true amount of drugs coming into the country because we don’t know the amount that comes in undetected (the known unknown)," explained Katharine Harris, a fellow in drug policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. She further clarified that the quantity of drugs "seized" – the figure the federal government typically reports – does not equate to the total drug "flow."
Despite this, President Trump frequently cites selectively chosen seizure data to bolster his assertion of having nearly halted drug imports by sea. In a May 22nd speech in New York, he stated, "We cut the flow of fentanyl across our border by 59%, which is unheard of. And we cut the flow of fentanyl and drugs into our country by the ocean and the sea, in other words, coming in by water, by ocean and sea by 97%." He reiterated a similar claim on May 28th during an interview with Lara Trump on Fox News, stating, "We have drugs down 97%. Fentanyl and various drugs down 97% on drugs coming in by water." This 97% reduction claim has been made by the president over a dozen times since late December.
This publication previously addressed President Trump’s unsubstantiated claim in February regarding a supposed reduction in fentanyl crossing U.S. borders by more than half. According to the most recent data from Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the amount of fentanyl seized by CBP decreased by approximately 50% in the first full 15 months of President Trump’s second term, falling from 26,398 pounds seized during President Joe Biden’s last full 15 months in office to 13,216 pounds seized during President Trump’s first full 15 months. Provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics also estimates a roughly 22% decline in overdose deaths from synthetic opioids, or fentanyl, between 2024 and 2025.
Seizure data is often used as an indicator of undetected drug entry. While a decrease in seizures might suggest a reduction in smuggling, it could also signify that authorities are intercepting less of the illicit substances. In October 2024, a claim by then-Vice President Kamala Harris regarding a "half" reduction in fentanyl flow was similarly questioned, as the amount seized by border officials had increased during President Biden’s initial two years. Experts at the time noted the insufficiency of data to support such statements, with David Luckey, director of the RAND Rural America Partnership Initiative, pointing out that "If you don’t know the denominator – meaning the figure for the total flow of a drug to the U.S. – you can’t have an answer."
President Trump’s assertion about drugs entering by water faces similar methodological challenges. When requested to provide the source for his claim, a senior administration official shared a link to CBP’s Air and Marine Operations statistics, which detail drug seizures by that specific division.
Upon closer examination, the administration’s calculation for the 97% reduction appears to be based on a cherry-picked comparison of drug seizures by CBP’s Air and Marine Operations. This comparison looked at the 4,476 combined pounds of cocaine, fentanyl, marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine interdicted in November 2025, which represented a significant drop from the 224,805 pounds seized in July of the same year. However, the July figure was an anomaly, driven by a substantial one-month spike in marijuana seizures, leading to an inflated starting point for the calculation.
As Katharine Harris noted, "Picking a different month" to begin the comparison "would have shown a smaller decline." She advises that it is generally more informative to examine trends over at least a 12-month period to account for seasonal variations and outlier events.
In fact, based on available data through April, CBP’s Air and Marine Operations seized 547,603 pounds in President Trump’s first full 15 months back in office. This represents an increase of approximately 81% compared to the 302,548 pounds seized in the final full 15 months of President Biden’s tenure. Even when excluding the exceptionally high seizure volume from July 2025, the amount seized under President Trump remained nearly 7% higher than under President Biden.
If an increase in seizures is indicative of more drugs successfully entering the country undetected, as some Republican sources have suggested, this directly contradicts President Trump’s narrative.
Furthermore, the U.S. Coast Guard, not CBP, is designated as the primary federal maritime law enforcement agency responsible for interdicting illegal drugs at sea. In fiscal year 2025, which included approximately eight months under President Trump, the Coast Guard reported seizing a record nearly 510,000 pounds of cocaine in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean – more than triple its annual average.
Despite these interdiction efforts, including U.S. military strikes on suspected drug-carrying vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific that began in September, cocaine remains readily available in the U.S. Reports suggest that smugglers have adapted by utilizing large shipping containers or land routes through Central America.
As Katharine Harris concluded, while seizure data can be part of a broader analysis that includes drug purity, price, and availability trends to infer supply disruptions, "the seizure data alone cannot substantiate claims about the true drug flow."