New York Governor Kathy Hochul has consistently defended the state’s $600 million investment in the Buffalo Bills’ new Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, asserting that the franchise pumps $300 million into the regional economy annually.
When Hochul stepped into the governorship in 2021, securing legislative approval for public financing of the $2.2 billion stadium was an uphill battle. Reflecting on the process in interviews with the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle and local radio hosts Shredd and Ragan, Hochul acknowledged lawmakers’ initial hesitation to commit substantial public funds to a sports arena. However, she maintained that the numbers justified the expenditure, arguing that walking away from a $300 million annual economic driver was simply not an option.
When asked for the origin of this figure, the governor’s office pointed to a 2021 economic and fiscal impact study prepared for Pegula Sports and Entertainment by CAA ICON. Utilizing 2019 data and fan surveys, the analysis calculated direct, indirect, and induced spending—ultimately placing the Bills’ annual economic impact on Erie County at $350.2 million. While the report’s authors noted their methodology was conservative, the document itself stipulates it cannot be used for marketing or financing, and it was compiled without independent auditing or verification.
Independent economists, however, strongly dispute the reliability of such commissioned reports. J.C. Bradbury, an economics professor at Kennesaw State University, dismissed the finding as “junk science,” noting that decades of peer-reviewed academic research show sports stadiums generate little to no measurable economic growth for host communities.
“The historical evidence suggests that stadiums are not economic engines,” Bradbury said, adding that he has never encountered a privately commissioned study that failed to report a positive economic impact.
Bradbury’s co-author, Brad R. Humphreys, similarly labeled Hochul’s claim as “not credible” and reflective of flawed methodology. Along with economist Dennis Coates, Bradbury and Humphreys published a 2022 review summarizing over three decades of literature, which reaffirmed the consensus that professional sports franchises yield negligible local economic benefits.
Other experts point out a fundamental flaw in the math behind these stadium reports. Victor Matheson, a professor of economics and accounting at the College of the Holy Cross, noted that the majority of stadium attendees are local residents. If a sports team were absent, those fans would likely spend their disposable income on other local entertainment and goods.
This oversight was also flagged by the Citizens Budget Commission in 2022. The fiscal watchdog criticized the CAA ICON analysis for assuming that all game-day spending would vanish from the region entirely if the team left, a premise that contradicts established economic literature.
Stadium finance critic Neil deMause emphasized that attributing $300 million in economic activity solely to the Bills assumes that money would otherwise evaporate. While the report tracks $300 million in football-related spending, it fails to prove that Western New York would lose that revenue entirely in the absence of the franchise.
Efforts to reach CAA ICON and the study’s authors for comment were unsuccessful.