As the midterm elections draw near, public opinion surveys consistently indicate that voters view inflation as their top economic worry.
Amid these concerns, President Donald Trump has defended his administration’s economic track record.
“I inherited very, very high costs, and they’re all coming down now,” Trump stated during an August 4 appearance on Fox News. “The food, the groceries, it’s all coming down.”
However, official government data reveals a different picture: with few exceptions, consumer prices have steadily climbed since Trump commenced his second term in January 2025. This upward trend has intensified recently, driven largely by a spike in gasoline prices following the outbreak of the war with Iran in late February.
Beyond hurting drivers at the pump, higher fuel costs have cascaded through the supply chain, increasing the expense of transporting everyday consumer goods.
Responding to inquiries, the White House pointed to the geopolitical conflict. Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, noted that the president “has always been clear about the fact that oil and gas prices — and thus overall inflation — will rapidly drop as soon as the Iran situation is resolved, and the administration in the meantime continues to implement more proven policies to deliver economic relief for the American people.”
While certain items have dropped in price since Trump took office—including select groceries like eggs, bacon, and bread, alongside durable goods such as automobiles—these cost reductions are the exception rather than the rule.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum, argued that the president’s claims do not align with official economic data or consumer sentiment. “The administration has an affordability issue for a reason,” he observed.
A closer look at consumer prices today compared with January 2025 reveals the following trends:
Overall, prices are up
Initially, inflation showed signs of cooling under Trump. For roughly his first 13 months in office, the year-over-year inflation rate remained below the roughly 3% level he inherited from President Joe Biden.
That trajectory shifted sharply after the conflict with Iran began on February 28. Monthly inflation rates surpassed previous levels, hitting 3.5% in June. Today’s 3.5% annual inflation rate exceeds the levels seen during most of Biden’s final 18 months in office.
Furthermore, the vast majority of consumer goods have become more expensive since the start of Trump’s second term.
Several major sectors have outpaced the overall 4.3% price increase, led by airfare (up 12.5%), electricity (up 8%), and housing and clothing (both up 5%). Conversely, durable goods like appliances have remained stable, while new and used car prices have experienced modest declines.
Grocery costs—a specific point raised by Trump in his Fox News interview—have risen by 3.4% overall since January 2025, a rate slightly below overall inflation. Still, major staples have seen steep increases, including coffee (up 35%), ground beef (up 23%), steak (up 21%), sugar and sweets (up 9%), chicken breasts (up 5.3%), and fruits and vegetables (up 5.2%).
Only a handful of grocery items are cheaper today than in January 2025, such as bread, bacon, and eggs, the latter of which dropped significantly after a prior bird flu outbreak subsided.
Gasoline and energy prices remain high since the Iran war
Roughly a year into his second term, the administration touted notable relief at the pump. Between early December 2025 and mid-January 2026, national gasoline averages fell about 10% to $2.78 per gallon.
Those gains were erased when the Iran war broke out. In retaliation for U.S. strikes, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane that previously handled roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply.
National gas prices peaked near $4.50 a gallon in mid-May. Although they have since receded to about $4.21, they remain well above the pre-war baseline of $2.94. If early August averages hold, this month will record the highest August gas prices since the U.S. Energy Information Administration began tracking the metric in 1993.
Overall, gasoline prices have surged 34% since the beginning of Trump’s second term. Other energy sectors have followed suit: fuel oil is up 24%, natural gas has risen 12%, and electricity costs have climbed 8%.
Wages are close to falling behind inflation
For much of Trump’s second term, wage growth outpaced inflation. However, the post-war surge in prices has abruptly stalled that momentum.
As inflation caught up to wage gains, May marked the first time during Trump’s second term that inflation outpaced wage increases. Although June saw wages edge back ahead—largely thanks to a temporary dip in gas prices—that delicate balance remains vulnerable as long as tensions persist in the Strait of Hormuz.
Summary Assessment
President Trump claimed that consumer costs—specifically mentioning food and groceries—are universally decreasing.
In reality, overall prices have climbed roughly 4.3% since the start of Trump’s second term, with grocery prices rising 3.4%. Energy costs have been heavily impacted by the conflict with Iran, driving gasoline up 34%, fuel oil up 24%, natural gas up 12%, and electricity up 8% since January 2025.
While cars, eggs, bacon, and bread have seen price drops, frequently purchased essentials like coffee, ground beef, and chicken continue to get more expensive.
Because the statement contains a kernel of truth but leaves out critical context that alters the overall picture, this claim is rated Mostly False.