Recent statements by President Donald Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin have drawn attention to the issue of noncitizen voting, citing a figure of over 250,000 noncitizens allegedly registered to vote in four states. This claim has been amplified as a threat to the U.S. election system, despite evidence suggesting noncitizen voting is a rare occurrence with no demonstrable impact on election outcomes.
President Trump, in a recent primetime address, continued to advocate for the SAVE America Act. This proposed legislation would mandate that voters present government-issued photo identification and documentary proof of citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, during registration. The bill is currently facing a standstill in the Senate due to concerns about voter disenfranchisement.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the Trump administration has reportedly been seeking voter data from states, a request that many state leaders have declined. Judicial interventions have also blocked the administration’s attempts to acquire this voter information.
In conjunction with President Trump’s address, the Department of Homeland Security released documents asserting that "over 250,000 non-citizens are illegally registered to vote in just the four states" of California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Nevada, all of which are governed by Democrats. Secretary Mullin reiterated this statistic in a subsequent news conference.
However, experts in election administration urge caution regarding this number and its presentation. Several factors contribute to this caution:
- Data Accuracy: Databases are susceptible to errors, mistaken identities, and outdated citizenship information. Historically, when large numbers of potential noncitizens are identified on voter rolls, the actual number of noncitizens registered to vote significantly decreases after thorough verification.
- Distinction Between Registration and Voting: The Department of Homeland Security’s data does not indicate whether registered noncitizens have actually cast ballots, let alone influenced election results. The rhetoric surrounding the 250,000 figure creates an unsupported impression of widespread illegal voting.
While President Trump has long highlighted allegations of noncitizen voters, it is illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. These violations are typically investigated and prosecuted, but evidence indicates that noncitizen voting has not been substantial enough to affect election outcomes, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
An examination of the 250,000 figure reveals how it was calculated and its limitations:
Methodology of the DHS Calculation:
The Department of Homeland Security’s breakdown of "potential" noncitizen registered voters in the four states is as follows:
- California: 190,832
- New Jersey: 35,152
- Nevada: 15,903
- Pennsylvania: 14,576
These numbers represent less than 1% of each state’s registered voter population. The specific methodology used to compile the 250,000 figure has not been fully detailed by the Department of Homeland Security or in public statements. Some experts suggest the data comparisons were made using commercial data, which may lack personally identifiable information necessary for precise matches with public voter files, potentially leading to a high number of false positives.
Several states have utilized the SAVE (Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements) system, a federal web service for verifying immigration status, to conduct initial estimates of noncitizen voters. However, it is unclear if SAVE was used for the review of the four targeted states, as the department indicated those states had not employed the system.
Officials in the affected states have expressed skepticism about the 250,000 figure. Nevada’s Secretary of State called the numbers "wildly speculative," while Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State noted that "all evidence has shown that noncitizen voting is extremely rare."
Reliability of the 250,000 Figure:
Experts advise caution due to several reasons:
- Preliminary Nature of Data: The Department of Homeland Security’s communications to state officials described the findings as a "preliminary review" and stated that there "may be as many as" the number of noncitizens identified. This nuanced language was largely omitted in public statements.
- Historical Precedent: Past instances of initial reports on noncitizen voter rolls have seen significant reductions after thorough vetting. For example, in Florida in 2012, an initial list of approximately 180,000 potential noncitizens was narrowed down to a much smaller number after extensive review, with errors even including a World War II veteran on the list. Similarly, Texas has encountered inaccuracies when identifying noncitizen voters, with state officials raising concerns about the accuracy of citizenship data.
- Focus on Registration, Not Voting: The figure highlights individuals who may be registered, not necessarily those who have cast ballots.
Evidence of Noncitizen Voting:
Regarding whether illegal voting has occurred, neither Secretary Mullin nor his department provided information on how many of the 250,000 individuals have voted or over what timeframe. State-level reviews in recent years have consistently found that very few noncitizens actually cast ballots, even if they are registered. For instance, Georgia reported about 139 votes cast by noncitizens out of millions of votes since 1992. Ohio referred 597 apparent noncitizen registered voters for prosecution, with 138 having cast ballots. Iowa’s initial estimate of potential noncitizens on its voter rolls was reduced significantly, with 35 confirmed instances of noncitizens having cast ballots in the 2024 general election.