Facing growing voter frustration over expensive gasoline, Vice President JD Vance attempted to pin the blame on former President Joe Biden.
During an Oct. 17 CBS News town hall, Vance stated, “The biggest reason why gas prices are so high is because when Joe Biden was president, we had about 20% of American refining capacity that went offline. We’re slowly bringing that online. But it does take a little bit of time. And because we shut down so much refining capacity, we were more susceptible to the shocks that we’ve seen in the Middle Eastern energy crisis.”
While Vance’s office did not respond to requests for comment, data shows that while California specifically lost 20% of its refining capacity, U.S. capacity on a national scale has remained quite steady.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that the 20% figure is “not a correct statistic in terms of national refinery capacity.”
Furthermore, multiple oil industry experts pointed out that presidential policies are just one of many variables affecting U.S. refining. They emphasized that the most direct driver of current high fuel costs is the war with Iran, a conflict initiated by Trump rather than Biden.
“The biggest factor influencing high gasoline prices is the elevated cost of crude oil, caused by the reduction in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to export and pipeline facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries,” explained Hugh Daigle, a petroleum and geosystems engineering professor at the University of Texas at Austin.
How could Biden’s policies have made a difference?
Energy market analysts note that some of Biden’s climate initiatives—aimed at moving away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy—may have influenced certain refiners’ choices to forgo building new facilities or expanding existing ones.
In particular, strict environmental regulations in California contributed to the closure of two state refineries, though the timeline doesn’t neatly match Vance’s narrative. Phillips 66 announced the shutdown of its Los Angeles refinery just two weeks prior to Trump’s 2024 reelection, and Valero announced the closure of its Benicia facility in April 2025 under Trump. Both plants officially closed during Trump’s second term.
How does the refining economy work?
Experts agree that Biden’s policies are not the primary driver behind current gas prices.
Instead, broader market forces dictate U.S. refining capacity, including:
Fuel demand (current and projected). The rise of electric vehicles—spurred by a mix of consumer choices and government incentives—has reduced overall gasoline demand and, consequently, the need for refining. Additionally, remote work trends mean people are driving less.
Foreign refining capacity. When global refining output is strong, oil companies rely less exclusively on domestic refiners. Skip York, a fellow at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies, noted, “Since 2019, global refining capacity has shrunk by about 1 million barrels a day while demand has grown by about 4.5 million barrels a day.”
U.S. refiners are currently operating at a high tempo because attacks in Ukraine and the Middle East have taken 3 million barrels a day offline. Because much of the disrupted foreign capacity focused on diesel, U.S. facilities have shifted some production away from gasoline to compensate, further driving up pump prices for American drivers.
Refinery profitability. When Phillips 66 decided to close its Los Angeles plant, it pointed to California regulations, but also noted that the company simply had “more attractive projects in the company’s portfolio,” according to York, even though the facility was profitable.
Global and domestic events. Economic recessions naturally reduce gasoline demand, lowering refinery utilization. Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, pointed out that “the big drop in U.S. refining capacity utilization happened in spring of 2020, during the initial wave of COVID shutdowns.”
How does U.S. refinery capacity today compare with the Biden era?
Despite disruptions caused by the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and market shifts, U.S. refinery utilization has remained relatively steady through both the Biden and Trump administrations, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
While pandemic-era supply chain issues and deferred maintenance dipped capacity in 2021 and 2022, Daigle noted that refining capacity has since returned to historically normal levels.
Analyzing refinery shutdown dates, Williams-Derry found that the amount of refining capacity lost during Trump’s two terms actually quadrupled the amount lost under Biden.
“Personally, I don’t think that politics had much to do with any of these closures,” Williams-Derry said, pointing to a 50-year-old Phillips 66 facility in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, which suffered hurricane damage in 2021. Unable to find a buyer, the company ultimately converted it into a terminal and closed the refinery.
Why are gasoline prices high now?
The most direct catalyst for current high gas prices is the outbreak of the Iran war. Prices surged immediately after hostilities began on Feb. 28 and have stayed elevated since.
“Reduced refinery capacity would contribute somewhat to higher gasoline and diesel prices today, but this is by no means the biggest reason why gasoline prices are so high today,” said Kenneth Gillingham, a Yale University energy and environmental economist.
Our ruling
Vance claimed that the primary driver of high gas prices was the loss of roughly 20% of American refining capacity during Joe Biden’s presidency.
This claim is inaccurate on several fronts. The 20% drop applies specifically to California, not the entire United States, where national capacity has remained largely stable. Furthermore, global market forces dictate refining levels far more than presidential policies, and today’s high fuel prices are most directly tied to the Iran war—a conflict launched under Trump, not Biden.
We rate the statement False.