Focusing on housing affordability, President Donald Trump has linked rising costs to unauthorized immigration, suggesting it was exacerbated under the Biden administration.
During a press briefing on Air Force One on July 8, Trump was asked about a March working paper by Federal Reserve economists concerning the effects of unauthorized immigration on U.S. labor and housing markets.
In his response, Trump stated, "What’s happening is housing costs are going down because — and rental costs are going down — because we’re getting so many illegals out of the country. But Joe Biden raised the cost of housing by 40 and 50% — the cost of (a) rental — because they were housing illegal aliens in all of those empty units."
However, the Federal Reserve paper presents a different conclusion. It indicated that unauthorized immigration contributed 4.3 percentage points to the overall 22.6% increase in rental housing prices between 2021 and 2024, a period that coincided with President Biden’s tenure.
Furthermore, there is no evidence to suggest that the Biden administration housed undocumented immigrants in vacant properties. A similar claim from a Trump-aligned campaign ad in 2024 was rated False by PolitiFact.
When reached for comment, the White House directed inquiries to the working paper and a related New York Post article.
Trump’s Statement Misrepresents Data
Estimates from the Congressional Budget Office indicate that between 2021 and 2024, an average of 1.6 million immigrants entered the U.S. without authorization, overstayed their legal visas, or were in the process of legal immigration proceedings.
The Federal Reserve working paper, utilizing the Zillow Observed Rent Index, found that U.S. rental housing prices increased by an average of 22.6% from early 2021 to early 2024 in metropolitan statistical areas. The paper attributed an elevated level of unauthorized immigration to a 4.3% increase in rental prices, representing 19% of the total rise.
The authors of the paper identified this as a supply and demand issue, where increased demand for housing from immigrants was not met by sufficient new construction.
Experts have cautioned against solely blaming price increases on unauthorized immigration, highlighting a lack of new construction as a more significant factor. Dean Baker, cofounder and senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, noted that newly arrived immigrants typically have lower housing demand and often share living arrangements. Past claims by the White House regarding the impact of unauthorized immigration on housing prices have also lacked substantiation.
Assessment
President Trump claimed that President Biden "raised the cost of housing by 40 and 50% — the cost of (a) rental — because they were housing illegal aliens in all of those empty units."
While a federal data analysis did find that unauthorized immigration during Biden’s term contributed to rental housing price increases, Trump significantly overstated this impact. The study indicated a 4.3% increase attributable to unauthorized immigration, not the tenfold increase suggested by his statement. Additionally, no evidence supports the assertion that the Biden administration housed undocumented immigrants in vacant homes.
This claim is rated Mostly False.