President Donald Trump asserts that massive oil revenues are currently pouring into both the United States and Venezuela following the U.S. apprehension of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January, which led to his transfer to New York City to face drug and corruption charges.
Speaking during an Aug. 4 Fox News interview, Trump pointed to Venezuela as a prime example of the “winning” that midterm voters want to see. “People were so opposed to what I did in Venezuela,” he remarked. “It lasted one day. And now, they, look, we’re making hundreds of billions of dollars, and so are they.”
However, independent data tells a different story, putting actual earnings far below Trump’s claims. Current reliable estimates suggest that total Venezuelan oil revenue since Maduro’s removal stands closer to $13 billion, and exact transparency regarding how those funds are split between the U.S. and Venezuela remains murky.
When requests for supporting data were made to the White House press office, officials simply pointed back to the president’s previous statements.
“The hundreds of billions figure is not remotely credible,” noted Phil Gunson, a senior analyst based in Caracas for the International Crisis Group, a conflict-studying nonprofit.
In fact, Trump’s valuation significantly surpasses Venezuela’s entire gross domestic product several times over.
The United States’ Influence in the Venezuelan Oil Sector
Following Maduro’s capture, then-Vice President Delcy Rodríguez stepped up as interim leader, with official U.S. recognition following in March. The Trump administration subsequently announced it would take direct control over Venezuela’s petroleum sector—a resource-rich industry that has nonetheless suffered for years from a lack of capital investment.
An executive order released shortly after the leadership change mandated that energy revenues would remain the property of the Venezuelan government but would be managed inside U.S. Treasury accounts in a “custodial and governmental capacity.” The Department of Energy asserted these funds would be utilized “for the benefit of the American people and the Venezuelan people.”
Because neither administration has published a clear, comprehensive, and up-to-date accounting of total revenue or distribution, verifying the figures requires piecing together fragmented industry estimates.
A Financial Times assessment published July 22 calculated that the U.S. has brought in roughly $13 billion from Venezuelan crude. This estimate cross-referenced freight-tracking data from Kpler with pricing benchmarks for various Venezuelan crude grades provided by Argus Media.
When pressed about this $13 billion figure by reporters aboard Air Force One in July, Trump expressed doubt, suggesting the real number was “even more than that.”
For Trump’s claim of “hundreds of billions” to hold water, both nations would individually have to be taking in sums greater than the total economic output of Venezuela, a country of nearly 29 million residents.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela’s GDP hovers around $111 billion, with petroleum sales making up roughly a quarter of that total, per the Financial Times.
Independent experts interviewed on the matter confirmed they are aware of no data supporting revenue figures in the hundreds of billions for either government.
“Even with the most generous assumption you’d never get there,” stated Dany Bahar, a visiting fellow in international and public affairs at Brown University.
Questions also linger regarding how much of the generated capital actually reaches Venezuela.
In April, State Department officials informed Congress that approximately $3 billion had been disbursed from Treasury accounts to cover government payrolls, oil sector equipment, and other approved expenditures. Meanwhile, a Venezuelan government tracking portal recorded just $300 million transferred domestically through March (though the U.S. also provided $386 million in disaster aid following twin earthquakes on June 24).
David Smilde, a senior associate at Tulane University’s Center for Inter-American Policy Research, called Trump’s August assertions “not possible,” pointing to the $13 billion Financial Times estimate as the most credible figure available.
Gunson pointed out that institutional transparency was absent in Venezuela long before Maduro’s downfall, noting that the nation has failed to publish a formal national budget in over a decade, making it nearly impossible to track where funds ultimately land.
Smilde similarly highlighted the “incredible opaqueness” surrounding Venezuelan oil transactions.
“My sense is that there has been quite a bit of revenue returning to Venezuela, but given the government’s budget deficit and all of the need, it does not have the impact people expect,” Smilde observed.
Conclusion
Trump claimed that through oil sales in Venezuela, “We’re making hundreds of billions of dollars, and so are they.”
Published financial analyses and regional experts place the maximum credible oil revenue generated since the U.S. took administrative oversight at roughly $13 billion.
Estimates in the hundreds of billions of dollars for both nations would vastly exceed the total economic size of the South American country.
Consequently, this statement is rated False.
Senior Audience Engagement Producer Ellen Hine contributed to this report.