An animated map shared by a conservative commentator suggests that immigration policies enacted during the Biden administration, rather than those of President Trump, are responsible for the significant increase in U.S. housing prices observed after 2022.
The post in question, by Tara Bull, is fueling renewed discussions about the affordability crisis impacting housing in the United States. It features a map that purports to illustrate the number of individuals entering the country illegally in 2022. The implication is that this influx, attributed to the Biden administration’s policies, is the primary driver of current high home prices, rather than any actions taken under Donald Trump.
However, an examination of the available data calls this assertion into question.
The Claim: An animated map indicates that the volume of illegal immigration during the Biden era is the cause of escalating housing costs.
The Findings: The map’s central figure of 5,356,750 illegal immigrants in 2022 does not align with any widely recognized figures for illegal immigration for that year.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimated approximately 11 million unauthorized immigrants resided in the U.S. as of early 2022, a number corroborated by the Pew Research Center. Separately, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 2.77 million encounters at the southwest border during fiscal year 2022. It’s important to note that these encounters are not necessarily unique individuals, as many involve repeat attempts to cross. The figure presented in the viral map falls between these two distinct datasets without matching either.
There is no publicly disclosed methodology to support the map’s figure, and it cannot be traced to official sources like DHS, CBP, Pew Research Center, or the Congressional Budget Office. Until the creator provides supporting data, the headline number on the map should be considered unverified.
The broader economic argument is more nuanced. A working paper released in March 2026 by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas did find that unauthorized immigrant workers contributed to housing demand between 2021 and 2024. Their research estimated that a 1% increase in the share of unauthorized workers in a metropolitan area’s labor force was associated with approximately a 2.2% rise in home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents. On a national level, the paper suggested that unauthorized immigration accounted for roughly 30% of home price growth and about 20% of rent growth during that period.
However, these findings have often been misinterpreted. President Trump and some of his allies have cited this paper to claim that illegal immigration caused home prices to jump by 30%. This is an oversimplification; the study indicated that unauthorized immigration contributed to about 30% of the increase in prices, not that prices themselves rose by 30% solely due to immigration.
Independent economists emphasize that immigration is just one element among many contributing to the housing affordability crisis. Experts like Albert Saiz, an urban economist at MIT, point to factors such as low interest rates during the pandemic, inflation, the rise of remote work leading to migration, persistent housing shortages, restrictive zoning laws, and increased construction costs as more significant drivers.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve paper is a working paper, meaning it has not yet undergone a full peer-review process. The paper itself acknowledges that its findings do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
In summary, the figure presented in the animated map is not verifiable against official immigration data. While evidence suggests that unauthorized immigration has played a role in the rise of home prices and rents, it is one factor among many. Political figures have frequently overstated the conclusions drawn from relevant research.